The following is a statement from Brampton Board of Trade CEO Jaipaul Massey-Singh:
Last week the province released the 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, a snapshot of the province’s current economic state as well as a forecast into the next 3 years. As per the report, the projections for economic growth are encouraging, highlighted by the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in over ten years. This indicator of stability will enhance the province’s ability to attract investment in addition to freeing up government revenues to be invested into priority areas while giving the province some resiliency in the event of national, or global economic downturns.
Additional positive notes included investments in vital sectors such as technology and healthcare, complemented by significant investment in transit and transportation infrastructure. Details include:
- Committing $27 billion over 10 years to support the planning and construction of highway expansion and rehabilitation projects across the province
- Providing $1 billion to Ontario manufacturers, helping to lower their costs, encourage innovation and enhance competitiveness
- An investment of $146 million to launch Phase 2 of the Life Sciences Strategy to help fuel sector’s growth
- Investing nearly $50 billion over the next 10 years in health infrastructure, including over $36 billion in capital grants
Finally, the report mentioned some commitments to specific Brampton, all of which are in-line with advocacy from BBOT and other community leaders. These include the extension of the Hazel McCallion LRT into downtown Brampton, as well as a commitment to the one-fare public transit program and all-day, two-way GO service across the core network.
Is this good news? For the most part yes. However, even as we celebrate these investments we also have concerns, some of priority and some of approach.
Developing Talent – the province is spending heavily to promote Ontario manufacturing through a combination of tax incentives, product registration programs, and investment in key technologies such as 5G, AI, and EV production. This approach has resulted in growth, with over 75,000 jobs created since 2020, however we believe we’re still falling short of our potential in the short-term and may have a critical labour shortage that will limit sector growth in the coming years unless we also see commensurate investment in skilled labour training. According to the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters over 70% of businesses report skilled labour shortages, a figure reflected in BBOT’s discussions with members. We urge government to enhance the financial supports available to post-secondary institutions offering skills training and lift the tuition freeze on publicly funded colleges and universities to ensure we have a sustainable educational sector that can provide our economy with the highly-skilled workforce it needs.
Environment – Although the report commitments to clean nuclear energy, electric vehicles, and that environmental assessments will be part of some key projects including those in the Ring of Fire, we believe environmental considerations deserve greater emphasis. Our focus on combating climate change must be reflected in fiscal policies that incorporate sustainability as a core principle with transparency for citizens who will feel the impacts for generations to come.
Assumptions of Growth – the financial forecast outlined in the report is an optimistic one, taking Ontario from a $6.6 billion deficit in 2024-25 to a modest surplus of $0.9 billion by 2026-27. While this is welcome news, a look at the fiscal plan leads to some questions. As outlined the province is committing to significant spending in the coming years; $86 billion in healthcare, $37 billion in education, and $20 billion in social services in 2024-25 alone with growth every year following. While these investments may be prudent, we question the revenue model that projects the surplus. The report assumes significant growth in the areas or personal income tax and corporations taxes, both increasing over 20% in the coming 3 years. While this may be achievable with our normal growth in Ontario, recent changes at the federal level will be reducing immigration by 20% over the same timeframe. Given that 40% of newcomers to Canada settle in Ontario we are bound to feel that impact in our tax base. Further, given that 40% of business starts in Ontario are by immigrants, we will disproportionately experience impact to business and employee base growth. While these legislative decisions do not fall on the province, it’s not apparent that these ramifications are taken into account when forecasting.
Finally, there are a few notable omissions that directly impact our community that we’ll continue to bring forward and champion, including support for a third hospital to meet the healthcare demands of Bramptonians as well as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) along Queen Street to better connect our city east-west. These items, along with others affecting local community and economic development are discussed at BBOT’s monthly Policy and Government Relations Committee meetings should you wish to engage in these topics.
Interested in sharing your perspective on fiscal issues, business concerns, and the priorities you’d like the Brampton Board of Trade to take on? Please complete our Business Confidence Index survey.
While the 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review showcases promising developments, we must not lose sight of the critical challenges that lie ahead. As stakeholders in Ontario’s future, we urge the government to take a balanced approach that prioritizes economic growth while also addressing the needs of our communities. We believe that by working together, we can create a prosperous Ontario that benefits all its residents.
